РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ В АСПЕКТЕ МОДЕРНИЗАЦИИ: КЛАСТЕРНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ И ПРОГНОЗ "ПРОСТЫМИ" МЕТОДАМИ

Abstract

The article analyzes the investment activity in the aspect of modernization, an important component of the capital investments overall flow in a difficult period for the domestic economy. The main indicator in this case is the share of investments aimed at reconstruction and modernization in the total volume of fixed capital investments. Cluster hierarchical models were used in the study of the dynamics of investments by economic activity, federal districts and regions of the central Federal District. Similarities and differences in investment activity among different subjects are revealed. A hierarchical cluster is defined, which can be attributed to the Oryol region. The following is a short-term forecast of the analyzed index for the Oryol region. Simple methods of prediction are used, namely the method of the average, the method of the last value («naïve» method) and the drift model. In addition, a direct and recursive algorithm was applied to calculate point values and confidence intervals. The most probable scenario, tragedy forecast models and considering fundamental factors, is braking of positive dynamics. Effective steps are needed to stimulate investment activity in terms of modernization, which should be synchronized to macro-and meso-levels.