Трещевский Ю. И.

Relevance of the topic. The necessity of developing a theoretical and methodological approach to assess the state and prospects of sustainable development of regions with varying levels and dynamics of their parameters. Objective. To provide theoretical and methodological framework for researching the dynamics of sustainable development within Russia's administrative-territorial units (regions). Methodology. A spatial-functional approach was employed, utilizing methods of logical, comparative, cluster, and correlation-regression analysis to examine the contemporary dynamics and outlook for sustainable development in Russian regions. Results and conclusions. Based on the analysis of the current situation and its forecasting for the medium term, the parameters of sustainability (sustainable development) of the model region (Yaroslavl Oblast) were established. The study identified trends in the change of sustainability parameters for economic, social, and environmental blocks by their types: inertial, plastic, restorative, and multiplicative. The combination of different types of sustainability requires the development of tools for managing the socio-ecological-economic development of regions, ensuring upward movement despite contradictory actual and forecasted dynamics of its parameters. A special place among the sustainability parameters is occupied by individual deposits in banks — high variability of forecasts indicates their significant dependence on external influences. The scope of application. Monitoring and forecasting the processes of sustainable development of administrative-territorial entities in Russia and their groups.

The relevance of the topic. The state and prospects of the Central Chernozem regions in the field of ecological, socio-economic development determine the need for analysis and assessment of their level of development in the context of all-Russian trends. Goal. Assessment of the parameters of the ecological, socio-economic development of the regions of the Central Chernozem region, determining the prospects for their development in this area of public relations. Methodology. Monographic method; cluster, logical and comparative analysis. Since the regions of Russia are numerous and differ significantly in the level of ecological, socio-economic development as a whole and in its individual components, in order to understand the prospects for the development of this sphere, their grouping was made, which made it possible to form virtual clusters using cluster analysis that are sufficiently homogeneous in terms of the totality of the estimated parameters. The assessment was made according to seven parameters: «the average annual number of employees by type of economic activity for the year», «distribution of the number of organizations and enterprises by type of economic activity», «environmental protection costs», «turnover of organizations by type of economic activity», «the share of captured and neutralized air pollutants», «the volume of turnover and consistently used water.» Virtual clusters have been formed as of the period 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021. Results and conclusions. The results obtained indicate that for four years there has been a positive trend in four of the five regions of the Central Chernozem region. At the same time, the Voronezh and Kursk regions were included for three and four years, respectively, in cluster «B», characterized by the highest indicators characterizing: the number of people employed in the field of water supply; sanitation, waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities; the number of organizations in this field of activity; the share of the volume of shipped industrial products for the collection, processing and disposal of waste, processing of secondary raw materials in its total volume. In general, the Central Chernozem Economic Region can be considered as one of the reference points of industrial modernization with the prospect of increasing the environmental friendliness of production, the use of «green tools», the introduction of new nature-saving industries. Scope of application. The practice of industrial modernization in the field of ecological, socio-economic development of regions.

The relevance of the topic. Instrumental support of innovative development of Russia in the conditions of sanctions. Goal. Assessment of the needs of innovative development of the country in the conditions of sanctions. Methodology. Monographic method, expert method, correlation and regression analysis, fuzzy logic apparatus used in the context of assessment and forecasting of innovative development of Russia under sanctions. Results and conclusions. The priority directions of innovative development in the conditions of aggravation of sanctions of unfriendly states and the basic macroeconomic indicators corresponding to them have been established. The analysis of the dynamics of basic indicators of innovative development showed the absence of their positive dynamics during the twelve-year period and, accordingly, allowed to predict the preservation of stagnation processes in this sphere of socio-economic relations. On the basis of expert assessments, the most promising anti-sanctions measures of organisational and financial plan, aimed at activating innovation processes in the country's economy, have been established. Scope of application. State regulation of innovation processes in Russia at the federal and regional levels.

Relevance of the topic. The need to form effective tools to support tourism in Russian regions in the «post-pandemic» period. Goal. To assess the state and directions of tourism development in the Republic of Dagestan as a region with significant growth prospects for this sector of the economy. Objective. To assess the state and directions of tourism development in the Republic of Dagestan as a region with significant growth prospects for this sector of the economy. Methodology. Monographic method; economic-statistical, logical, comparative analysis. Results and conclusions. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the development of various economic sectors at the global and macroeconomic levels. One of the most affected sectors is the tourism sector. At the same time, during the «pandemic» and «post-pandemic» periods, there were factors that counteracted the deterioration of tourism and related industries. Economic and statistical analysis has shown that in one of the most promising regions in terms of tourism - the Republic of Dagestan, the deterioration of the indicators of this sector of the economy and related industries occurred to a lesser extent than in many other regions. In the «post-pandemic» period, the region's tourism sector is recovering rapidly. This is facilitated by the implementation of a number of strategic planning documents at the federal and regional levels. Further prospects of tourism development in the Republic of Dagestan are associated with the implementation of cluster policy in the tourism and recreational sphere. Scope of application. State regulation of the service sector in the regions of Russia.

S u b j e ct . Methods of forecasting target parameters of socio - economic development of regions. R e s e a r c h topic. Forecasting the export of Russian regions using the standard apparatus of neural networks. P u r p o s e. Development and testing of a methodological approach to forecasting the target parameters of the socio - economic development of Russian regions for the period up to 2024. M e t h o d o l o g y. Logical, comparative, economic - statistical, cluster analysis, neural network prediction. R e s u l t s . Five virtual clusters (groups of regions) are formed, with a sufficient level of reliability and significance of parameters. An analysis of the export dynamics of model regions representing different groups (virtual clavesters) of Russian regions, differing in the totality of parameters of foreign economic activity, was made. A forecast of the dynamics of exports of model regions has been formed. S c o p e . Economic policy of regional authorities in the field of foreign economic activity. C o n c l u s i o n s . During the study, it was found that for most region groups, the combination of cluster analysis, correlation - regression and neural network prediction methods allows: to establish the composition of basic indicators of socio - economic development associated with the target parameter; make at least two variants of target parameter dynamics forecast; to determine the degree of difference between the forecast variants of the target parameter dynamics; determine the acceptability of using formal prediction methods (correlation - regression and neural) to predict the dynamics of the target parameter of socio - economic development of model regions.

Ecological and economic development of Russian regions. Topic . Assessment of spatial and functional features of ecological and economic activity of Russian regions.Purpose. Identification of the level of ecological and economic activity and the balance of Russian regions in terms of economic, social and environmental properties. Methodology. Logical, comparative, economic and statistical, and cluster analysis. Results . Five virtual clusters (groups of regions) were formed with a sufficient level of confidence and significance of parameters. The analysis of the ratio of economic, social and environmental parameters made it possible to assess the activity and balance of regional groups within and between the respective spheres. The correlation of ten parameters (three social, three economic, and four environmental) showed that at the beginning of the analyzed period (2005), there were two groups of the most active regions with high values of indicators of ecological and economic activity. Applicationarea . Economic and environmental policy of regional authorities. Conclusions . In General, there was no link between environmental and economic activity and balance at the level of regional groups. During the period up to 2018, there were noticeable changes in the configuration of regional groups and their environmental and economic parameters. The level of balance of active clusters decreased and increased in the clusters of medium and low activity.

Purpose. Identification of interrelations of strategic positioning of industrial development of regions of Central Black Earth Macroregion (CBEM) and the work forces providing it. Discussion. Industrial development of Russia and regions of the country is considered as a strategic vector which maintenance is made: positive dynamics of industrial outputs, technical and technological improvement, export expansion, active import substitution, forming of perspective organization structures (clusters, technoparks, industrial parks, special economic zones, territories of the advancing development, etc.). Results. The analysis of strategy of social and economic development of CBEM showed that industrial development is positioned as competitive advantage by all regions of CBEM, and, irrespective of its actual level. In the specified documents the high level of attention to improvement of different aspects of industrial development is shown. The direct connection of a status and dynamics of industrial production with a solution of social problems, improvement of space development of regions is proved. In strategy will reach in general quite high level of compliance of the purposes, tasks, instruments of industrial development. At the same time it should be noted that a variety of solvable tasks is not fully provided with programs, projects for development of work forces. A set of indicators, typical for strategy, and their quantitative characteristics do not allow to see accurately perspectives of industrial development and resources, necessary for it. Most it belongs to work forces.

Purpose. To identify trends in export-import volumes of the regions of the Central black earth macroregion (CBR) in the post-crisis and sanctions periods, to establish the presence (or absence) of critical changes in this area of economic activity since 2014. Discussion. In the scientific and journalistic literature there is an active discussion of the impact of economic sanctions on the volume of foreign trade transactions. The authors understand that these processes are manifested to varying degrees in different regions and areas of economic activity. The appeal to the regions of the CBR is due to the high diversity of foreign economic activity, local- ized in a limited space. Results. Summarizing the results of the analysis of the volume of foreign trade relations of the regions of the CBR showed that in most administrative-territorial entities from 2010 to 2015 there are significant changes in exports and imports. In the post-crisis period (2010 -2011) there was a rapid, but short-term growth in almost all volume indicators. From 2011-2012 began the decline in volumes. Any significant changes in the volume of foreign trade operations in the regions of the Central black earth macroregion in the period 2015-2016. did not happen. Almost all indicators preserved «falling» trend.

Cluster and correlation-regression analysis were used to analyze the state of industrial development of the Voronezh region. In the process of cluster analysis it was found that the Voronezh region is included in the group of middle-developed regions. Due to the industry specifics, the data characterizing the dynamics of the manufacturing industry of the Voronezh region and the region-representative of the cluster G - Vladimir region were used for compara- tive analysis. According to the results of the analysis, both regions have positive dynamics of the majority of indicators of development of the manufacturing industry: production volumes; average annual number of employees; value of fixed assets; investments; financial results. There is a decrease in the number of enterprises in the manufacturing industry in both regions. The sustain- ability of trends are varies.

The purpose of the article is to identify trends in the development of economic potential of different groups of regions of Russia. Discussion. The article hypothesizes that the dynamics of economic potential depends on the presence of a kind of «centers of attraction», which are the cities of millions. To assess the economic potential of the regions, a set of indicators characterizing its individual subsystems is proposed: population, attractiveness, reproduction in terms of the movement of value, industrial production, innovation, investment, education. Accordingly, the indicators themselves are represented by the population; migration population growth; GRP; volume of shipped goods, works, services by type of economic activity «manufacturing»; the volume of innovative goods, works, services; investment in fixed capital at the expense of all sources of funding; release of students (bachelors, masters, specialists). Results. It is shown that groups of regions are characterized by different trends of accumulation of elements of economic potential.

Article purpose. Justification of structure and maintenance of strategic objectives of the Voronezh region, definition of indicators of their achievement. Discussion. International and domestic experience of strategic planning testifies to need of statement of system of the purposes having certain quantitative characteristics. The formulation is more whole and the tasks following from them not having certain indicators of their achievement has no prospect - it is impossible to define extent of their achievement in practice. Authors have proved and approved teoretiko-methodical approach to formation of system of the interconnected indicators reflecting achievement of the set strategic objectives of social and economic development of the region on the example of the Voronezh region.Results. In article justification and the substantial characteristic of strategic objectives of social and economic development of the Voronezh region for the period till 2035 are offered, the structure of indicators of their achievement is defined.

The work purpose - assessment of problems and the prospects of spatial development of the million-plus city the city of Voronezh. Discussion: the prospects of strategic development of the large cities of Russia which need is defined by the Federal law of June 28, 2014 No. 172 - the Federal Law «About Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation» are defined, substantially, by the solution of a problem of an effective combination of their spatial and functional characteristics. Sheathe a problem of the majority of million-plus cities is formation of essentially new production environment causing need of redistribution of production sites, creations of modern transport and logical complexes, changes of structure of labor and life support systems. Results - on the example of Voronezh are proposed the strategic solutions allowing to create effective, meeting the modern requirements, spatial and functional environment of the million-plus city.

In article the characteristic of approach to development of strategy of social and economic development of the Voronezh region until 2035 is given, her basic components - a region mission, his relative competitive advantages, strategic priorities and the purposes of development in a long-term outlook are opened.

Article purpose: definition of the spatial and functional characteristics of the Voronezh region necessary for definition of priorities of strategic development of the region and municipalities. Russia represents the country differentiated according to economic, social, in- stitutional characteristics of administrative-territorial formations of various level. The attempts declared for several decades to smooth social and economic disproportions at the national and regional levels, haven’t brought to essential change of a situation. Authors believe that elimination of differentiation of spatial and functional subsystems of the country, so large and diverse on many basic characteristics, as Russia, is impossible and inexpedient. The problem consists not in differentiation, and in the insufficient accounting of important parameters of social and economic subsystems (regions, municipalities, branches, etc.) at the choice of priorities of strategic development.in article the condition of the municipalities of the Voronezh region belonging to the categories «city district» and «municipal district» is analysed. Features of their social and economic development on the basis of which the group on essential from the social and economic point of view and to statistically significant signs defining priorities of strategic development is made are revealed.

В статье сделана попытка представить взгляды крупного бизнеса на стратегические возможности развития региона. Сравнение проводилось между следующими институциональными группами: крупный бизнес, малый бизнес, региональные органы власти, органы местного самоуправления, общественные организации, бюджетные организации. По результатам анализа крупный бизнес является самой оптимистичной институциональной группой в регионе. Наибольшие надежды крупный бизнес связывает с реализацией государственных программ в ОПК, развитии транспортной инфраструктуры, импортозамещения. Довольно высок уровень оптимизма в отношении развития внутреннего рынка продукции, необходимого для технико-технологической модернизации производства. Слабо выражены надежды крупного бизнеса в отношении интеграционных процессов (кластерные программы), использования рекреационных ресурсов, перспектив активизации вузов на международном рынке образовательных услуг, конвертации доходов «ненаблюдаемой» экономики в открытые финансовые ресурсы.

In article the provision of the Voronezh region in the investment sphere is considered. Methods of the cluster and regression analysis are used. Are established: change of a common position of the Voronezh region in «investment space» of Russia, the priority directions of investing activities are revealed. Potential points of activization of investing activities in the context of competitive advantages of the region are determined.

In article the condition and dynamics of industrial development of the Russian regions during the period from 2006 to 2010 is considered. On the basis of the cluster analysis the groups of territorial subjects of the Russian Federation uniform in level of industrial development are revealed, defined their strong, weaknesses and prospects of further development.

The article discusses methods of constructing an integrated indicator of competitiveness of the region. Reflected a range of private values (indices, potentials), which are calculated on the basis of the integral values of the competitiveness of the region and its economic and competitive potential. It is concluded that the aggregate advisable to form the basis of sectors and proposes a corresponding formula for its calculation.

In article dynamics of the consolidated budgets of Russia in crisis of 2007-2009 is analysed. Conclusions are drawn on interrelations of dynamics of the income of budgets of regions with types of crises and level of economic development of administrativno-territorial subsystems of the country.

In article manifestations of crisis processes in the Russian regions in 2007-2009 are analysed. It is shown that manifestations of crisis are very various, regions of the country are differentiated on depth and duration of crisis. The author’s typology of crises in regions on a combination of two parameters — depth and duration of crisis is offered. Regions of Russia are grouped in crisis types.

In article dynamics of investments in Russia, federal districts and twenty regions of the country during 2000-2010 is analysed. Tendencies of development of investment activity in various groups of regions in economic growth and the crisis which has followed it are revealed.

In article problems of management by the regions, different various level and in the speed of development are considered. The structure of indicators on which it is necessary to exercise administration of regions of a various level of development is offered. The structure of tools of the federal and regional levels necessary for management by regions on the basis of indicators is proved.

In article various approaches to management of regional development are considered: macroeconomic, institutional, branch, segment. Tools of management applied at various approaches are analysed. The approach based on representation about regions, as objective systems and toolkit of federal and regional levels corresponding to it is offered.

In article the basic directions of development of state regulation in sphere of anti-recessionary management are proved by the commercial organizations. It is shown that are necessary: transition from indemnification of «market failures» to addition and strengthening of market influence; expansion of structure of the functions which are carried out by the state; increase of level of selectivity of actions of the state in anti-recessionary management of the enterprises.