MODELS OF QUANTITATIVE DEPENDENCE OF VIOLENT CRIME IN RUSSIA ON ALCOHOLIZATION OF THE POPULATION

Abstract

Relevance of the topic. To determine effective government measures to minimize crime in the Russian Federation, it is important to find a quantitative model that determines the dependence of violent crime on the level of alcoholization of the population. Target. Constructing a quantitative relationship between the level of violent crime in Russia and the level of alcoholization of the population. Methodology. Construction of a linear regression model of the dependence of violent crime in Russia on the level of alcoholization of the population and the price of alcohol sales based on statistical analysis of panel data for Russian regions over a number of years. Results and conclusions. The dependences of the rate of intentional homicides and the death rate from homicides in the Russian Federation on the level of ethanol consumption per capita, on the level of primary incidence of alcoholism in the population, as well as on the average selling price of ethanol in alcoholic beverages were constructed. A significant relationship between violent crime and the level of alcoholization of the population is shown quantitatively. Field of application. State management of social processes.