Моделирование уровня продовольственной безопасности региона при реализации политики структурно-экономических преобразований в аграрной сфере1

Abstract

The assessment of the food security of the region in the implementation of the policy of structural and economic transformation in the agrarian sphere was considered on the basis of generalized indicators that are the criteria for the main aspects of food security. An assessment was made of the level of food security in a particular region, based on assessing the physical availability of food, the economic accessibility of food, and assessing the adequacy of food. Regression analysis of time series was carried out to determine the degree of influence of factors characterizing the sources of the formation of resources of the main types of food and the channels for their use, as well as extensive and intensive factors of agricultural production on the dynam- ics of the coefficient of sufficiency of food consumption. Based on the extrapolation of trends, the predictive values of the factors characterizing the sources of the formation of the resources of the main types of food and the channels for their use, as well as the intensive and intensive factors of agricultural production, were determined. The predicted values of the shower satisfaction fac- tor in milk and milk products allow us to conclude that in the long term their consumption widecrease. Taking into account the results of modeling the level of food security and the predicted values of satisfaction of the per capita milk and meat demand, key areas of structural and economic transformation in the agrarian sphere were identified as necessary measures to increase food security in the region.