Trostyansky S. N.

Relevance of the topic. To determine effective government measures to minimize crime in the Russian Federation, it is important to find a quantitative model that determines the dependence of violent crime on the level of alcoholization of the population. Target. Constructing a quantitative relationship between the level of violent crime in Russia and the level of alcoholization of the population. Methodology. Construction of a linear regression model of the dependence of violent crime in Russia on the level of alcoholization of the population and the price of alcohol sales based on statistical analysis of panel data for Russian regions over a number of years. Results and conclusions. The dependences of the rate of intentional homicides and the death rate from homicides in the Russian Federation on the level of ethanol consumption per capita, on the level of primary incidence of alcoholism in the population, as well as on the average selling price of ethanol in alcoholic beverages were constructed. A significant relationship between violent crime and the level of alcoholization of the population is shown quantitatively. Field of application. State management of social processes.

Relevance of the topic. Definition of theoretical model determining the dependence of alcoholization and alcoholism morbidity of the population in the regions of Russia on the socioeconomic factors is actual for the assessment of efficient measures of pubic measurements concerned with minimization of losses due to alcoholization and alcoholism of population. Purpose. Definition of the quantitative dependence of alcohol consumption by the population and primary alcoholization morbidity on the socioeconomic factors in the regions of Russia. Methodology. Definition of the linear regression model of dependence of the population alcoholization and primary alcoholism morbidity on socioeconomic indicators basing on statistical analysis of the panel data by the regions of Russia for a number of years. Results and conclusions. Quantitative dependences of alcohol consumption by the population and primary alcoholism morbidity on the average incomes and income distribution of the population as well as on the selling price of alcohol in the regions of Russia, consistent with the economic models of the rational addictive behavior. Field of application. State management of the social processes.